MEMORANDUM

TO:  Sam Rohrer Supporters & Allies
FR:  Jeff Coleman, Senior Campaign Strategist
RE:  State of the Republican Governor’s Race
DA:  8 January 2010

The race for the Republican nomination for governor is up for grabs.  Polls continue to indicate the vast majority of Republican Primary voters are undecided, unsure or ambiguous about their options. With Congressman Jim Gerlach’s exit from the race, the Republican choice for governor becomes stark – a moderate Republican or a comprehensive, ideas conservative.

In the past, Attorney General Tom Corbett has always positioned himself as the moderate, centrist, consensus builder – not an ideological conservative.  The support and sponsorship given to him from the old-guard, establishment wing of the Republican Party like Pittsburgh’s Elsie Hillman, has prevented him from making more aggressive movements toward the base of the Party.

While non-controversial, statewide row officers like Attorney General Tom Corbett generally benefit from early name recognition and a generally positive profile associated with his job performance, Primary Republican voters are far from the point of decision the governor’s race.

What about the early polls?

It is instructive that at a similar point in 1990, the presumptive gubernatorial nominee, State Treasurer General Barbara Hafer, benefited from name recognition and strong backing from Republican State Committee, but remained undefined on core Republican issues early in the process.  Hafer narrowly defeated a vastly underfunded Primary Election opponent, and lost 68%-32% to Bob Casey Sr., in the General Election.   In 2002, the GOP nominee, state Attorney General Mike Fisher won early support from Republican State Committee with strong name ID and a solid law enforcement record.  Fisher would lose to Ed Rendell 53.4%-44.4%.  In 2006, Republican State Committee endorsed Lynn Swann, based on an argument of positive name ID and celebrity.  Swann lost to Ed Rendell by a margin of 60-40%.

The lesson?  Early name ID predicts little or nothing about the eventual electoral outcome in the fall.  Name ID, money and establishment support often clears the field – but fails to create real grassroots passion.  Their support can’t be manufactured or rented, and candidates will never generate a compelling, conservative message from a briefing book.

2010 is a year for the courageous, ideas-driven conservative. That’s Sam Rohrer.

###

Visit www.TheStrategyRoom.org for 24/7 insider updates from the campaign.
See where Sam will be campaign this weekend at www.SamRohrer.org.